In which a question is finally answered

From a conversation last week. Names have been changed to protect the guilty, but a solicitor and a solicitee are involved.

<Solicitor> hi there, got a few minutes?
<Solicitee> Maybe, I'm playing with camwhore though so be quick
<Solicitor> can you please quit sarcasm and tell me your honest opinion about your long-term price expectations?
<Solicitee> I have not long term price expectations. I just try to maximize my BTC holdings.
<Solicitor> so it doesn't matter what is its $USD equivalent, you don't give a fuck, right?
<Solicitee> I give fucks, but there are too many irrational actors in the market to have anything concrete.
<Solicitee> Also what makes it look like I have credentials for this?
<Solicitor> the fact that you try to maximize your BTC holdings tells me you are uber sure it will rise like crazy, with the best case scenario of you being able to spend it without converting it back to fiat in everyday life
<Solicitee> That doesn't mean I'm any good at it.
<Solicitor> so in other words, you're saying that today, Bitcoin is extremely undervalued at 2.4 BN market cap
<Solicitor> I'm just trying to make sense of what the fuck is going on
<Solicitor> see, I kinda agree with your view
<Solicitee> Today the price is probably a bit over valued, but this time next year it should be worth much more. I can't be bothered to chase every little hump and dump.
<Solicitor> you said you doubled your BTC holding last time it crashed in April
<Solicitee> That seemed obvious then and I like to gamble. I sent the sell order in quite a bit earlier. When it was filled I made a buy order at half the price, because price was moving up to fast in those hours to not pop. I also didn't double all of my Bitcoin, just the part I trusted to an increasingly unreliable Gox.1

And thus a dilemma. The solicitor wants and expert and encountered a gambler who made the judgment to trust the author of this article and then took a market position based on it. A position that sold some coin about $20 below the April peak and allowed rebuying after the crash.2 The conversation continues with details and numbers that will be omitted, because they are probably boring and are best summarized in that the solicitor sold a 4 figure amount of coins at $185 and now has sellers remorse.

After more begging finally an answerable question appears.

<Solicitee> I don't present any credentials though. It seems more like you are looking for a wizard than an expert.
<Solicitor> no, I'm just looking for an advice
<Solicitor> I know you don't give a fuck
<Solicitee> I'm probably a poor source.
<Solicitor> and so does MP
<Solicitor> why do you think you're a poor source?
<Solicitee> You seem to have more skin in this trading than I do
<Solicitee> Your problem is you seem to want to daytrade. BTC routinely punishes and breaks people who try that.
<Solicitor> so you say I have to simply accept it and buy back in now?
<Solicitor> what would you do in my place?
<Solicitee> I'd probably buy back in. To you I might recommend you stay in fiat. you might not have the stomach for this

Reading is everyone's responsibility. To succeed, or at least to avoid losing involves having the stomach to read and wait. Any proposition which is precarious in the fiat world, like daytrading often still more precarious in Bitcoin. If you don't desire to read, math, and price things yourself you probably shouldn't be trading. If you don't care to take some measures to secure your digital fortune from the malicious or your malicious aversion to responsibility, you probably shouldn't Bitcoin. You might not be ready yet.


  1. An amount that was increasingly decreasing.  

  2. Because the prospect of withdrawing fiat off of Gox even then seemed precarious.  

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