Last week we covered how well the large bets on BitBet get to see money move as change the odds change with greater information. This week with the major league regular season nearly complete let's examine what is happening with the baseball bets. Bets that don't connect directly to financial outcomes. I'll start with a postmortem of ones that have run their course and end by highlight ones that still have life and opportunity.
- King Felix to Reign MLB Strikeouts: As of today he is in fifth place with 241 strike outs and is pitching one more game tomorrow. Corey Kluber is in first place with 269 strike outs. It isn't impossible at this moment for Felix Hernandez to pass Kluber, but tomorrow he would need to pitch a complete game shutout where every out he pitches is a strike out, and the game would have to go into extra innings. Not impossible, but the strongest kind of unlikely. On this bet the odds do seem to reflect reality though with 3.64 BTC on 'No' and 0.17 BTC on 'Yes' betting on this one is still open.
- Dee Gordon, Most Stolen Bases 2014: Stillborn is the only way to describe this bet. He lead when it was created and now… He still leads by eight. While his nearest competitor Jose Altuve can and has played games where he stole two or more bases, stealing 8 in two games is a bit much. Getting on base 8 time in the first place is a bit much. The pot remains as it was seeded 0.03 on 'No' and 0.07 on 'Yes' so… no action at all.
- Masahiro Tanaka wins more than 15 games: With his last start earlier today ending in a loss, his season ends with 13 wins. His UCL injury which took him out of much of the middle of the season was a limiting factor on his performance. The pool has 1.26 BTC on 'NO' and 0.3 BTC on 'YES' and betting is closed.
- Giancarlo Stanton wins NL MVP: Even though his season ended early because his face was broken by a stray fastball he's probably still the front runner for this award. His 37 home runs remain 6 more than his closest competitor. His .288 batting average puts him at 18th in the league. His .395 on base percentage is second. He is second in the league in walks to Matt Carpenter who passed his 94 very recently. His 13 stolen bases put him in a tie for 31st place which means there is only one team's roster and another team's starting rotation worth of players ahead of him. In WAR1 according to ESPN he is in second place. Even though his season ended on September 11th, he should be a shoe in. Just 0.15 on 'NO' merely 0.08 on 'YES'. Betting closed way too early on this one.
- Mike Trout wins AL MVP: Probably happening. 0.1 on 'NO' 0.3 on 'YES'
Now for some Open Bets on the Postseason:
Oakland to Compete in the World Series: They could be eliminated this weekend or clinch a Wild Card Spot.
A team from California will win the World Series: Between the Dodgers and Angels, and for the moment the Oakland Athletics and San Fransisco Giants, this bet is very much alive.
American League team will win the MLB World Series: There's going to be an American League Team competing in this thing after all.
If you want tool to help run numbers on some Bets, BTC Alpha now has a BitBet Analyzer.
Wins above replacement level player, kind of a bullshit meta statistic. ↩