Back To The Fat Accountancy Discussion

Continuing from the last post, the fat account is the sum total of all value personally accessible to me which has not explicitedly been committed committed to the enterprise. At a time when the naive Bingo who had never left the reservation thought he could get off the plane in early December and bring the republic online before Christmas, end of the month at the latest, and start bringing in revenue… It made all the naive sense in the world to charge food,1 Spanish lessons,2 skirt chasing, etc to the fat waiting for revenue to outrun expenses.

Then reality hits. All of sudden its February, just got online still no revenue from which to draw a salary, you're posting pictures and the manager you have never met notices you have lost weight and offers a per diem. Sure, by the middle of the month everything's blown up and by the end of month things have come together again. Not where I expected when I got off the plane, but not in a bad position.

For having expended the fat I have acquired the foundations for building a life outside the wire. And then there's the education. Yesterday I got to deploy the magic words "… por efectivo" for savings over the firm's catalogue prices. I can inject commentary about mis huevos into conversations. I also have had a number of conversations with people whose only impression of the empire is… Miami… through second and third hand reports. I get to answer the question of where I live with the name of my hostel rather than the place I happen to have came from. Sure, my clothes are still looser, no point replenishing the literal fat too aggressively while the metaphorical fat sits leaner. For the return on investment, this expendature of fat a much better deal than US college was in both time and money.

Thankfully my fellows in the Republic are Republican enough to birth Pizarro, and I am still in Montevideo as history has actually flown this past month instead of in Illinois as it could have flown.

  1. The first week or so while I was still learning pesos are real money hurt a bit more on this line item than time after adjusting to pesos as money  

  2. 300 pesos and hour over three 1.5 hour lessons a week for 1500 pesos weekly or ~53.5 US Dosiedoes weekly  

Where are those Baseball BitBets now? Oh, some are still open!

Last week we covered how well the large bets on BitBet get to see money move as change the odds change with greater information. This week with the major league regular season nearly complete let's examine what is happening with the baseball bets. Bets that don't connect directly to financial outcomes. I'll start with a postmortem of ones that have run their course and end by highlight ones that still have life and opportunity. Continue reading

The Newest Biggest: Or the value of a Backstop

I've covered large Bitcoin Bets before, but now there is a new largest Bet in the space in an absolute sense. With a pool of 2816.69 BTC the bet that Bitcoin surpasses Berkshire as an investment went from being the bet in Bitcoin which had seen the most action to also being the one with the most money. And the resolution of the bet is still roughly six months out. As the news reported, this is the equivalent of well over a million dollars, even if Bitcoin keeps crashing. For perspective less than a year ago it would have been well over three million, and within less than two years ago it wouldn't have been enough to buy a new pickup truck. Continue reading

A Reversal of Odds

a chart explanation below

From the bet Bitcoin to Break $10,000 which closes to new bets on November 19th, 2014 and resolves 10 days later on the 29th of November. When this bet opened on November 30th, 2013 nearly 100 BTC was bet the same day at odds of roughly 3:2 in favor. Now that time has passed and the window for BTC to break the $10,000 price point within the bets window has shrank and the odds have corrected, to the tune of raising the pool of BTC bet to 812.29 BTC.

700 BTC laid down simply to correct the odds.

Record Large Public Bitcoin Bet Reached

A bet on whether Bitcoin outperforms Berkshire Hathaway on has now become the record largest public Bitcoin denominated bet in terms of the number of bets placed. As of publishing 162 bets have been placed on this proposition. In terms of absolute value wagered this bet is still dwarfed by two bets on the same platform which were Bitcoin difficulty at or above 2B before Feb 2014 1886.91 BTC wagered1 and BFL will deliver ASIC devices before March 1st (2013) 1689.81 BTC wagered.2 This bet is scheduled to resolve on March 16th, 2015 with wagering open through February 15th, 2015.

  1. The largest ever in Bitcoin and in the equivalent dollar value denominated in Bitcoin.  

  2. Bitcoin was worth much less at the time.  

Slow Corrections

Every now and then in time weighted mutual betting an outcome seems popular at first due to recent prevailing trends, but as it slowly approaches seems increasingly less likely and the time weight dampens enthusiasm to chase after the initially confident pot.  I present Bitcoin network difficulty > 14Bn on Bastille Day as an example of this phenomenon. Anyone want to do math and see if the pot is worth chasing with wagers placed on no?

BitBet screenshot

The wager as it stands now.

Any takers?